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20 April 2019

Frances Donald, Head of Macroeconomic Strategy, Manulife Asset Management

 

We continue to expect better macroeconomic data over the summer, but we'd add that the return of policy uncertainty and strong year-to-date equity market returnscould imply a choppier trading environment. At this stage, a more proactive investment approach is likely the best strategy to pursue, especially against a backdrop of potentially slower growth around year-end.

 

  • Facing the headwinds with a brighter outlook (Infographics)

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  • Re-entering a lower for longer rate environment

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  • US-China trade war: A framework for thinking about new tariffs (Infographics)

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China's recent stimulus measures are more domestically focused and consumer based than in the past

The current stimulus has certainly contrinuted to China's economic growth. However, without a sizeable improvement in import volumes, China's stabalization is likely to bring limited benefits to its trading partners.

Asian economies are struggling with inventory build-ups.

Inventory to shipments remains high for several Asian economies, including Taiwan and Korea. This level of inventories have to be worked through, so it will take time before they can raise production.

Asian economies are struggling with inventory build-ups.

Inventory to shipments remains high for several Asian economies, including Taiwan and Korea. This level of inventories have to be worked through, so it will take time before they can raise production.

Commodity prices are less likely to rebound.

Several Asian economies benefited from higher commodity prices following significant supply-side cuts fro China's heavy industry sectors in 2015-16. In this round of stimulus, Beijing has relaxed its cuts hence that benefit is absent.

  • Facing the headwinds with a brighter outlook (Infographics)

    Read more
  • Re-entering a lower for longer rate environment

    Read more
  • US-China trade war: A framework for thinking about new tariffs (Infographics)

    Read more
See all
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