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20 April 2019

Frances Donald, Head of Macroeconomic Strategy, Manulife Asset Management

 

As we enter the second quarter, we generally expect risk-on sentiment to persist, marked by a rebound in US and Chinese growth combined with supportive monetary policy. However, we remain cautious on two fronts: First, investors appear to have priced in a good deal of expected good news in the China/EM narrative, and second, Europe has yet to produce a believable trough in deteriorating economic data.

 

  • Facing the headwinds with a brighter outlook (Infographics)

    Read more
  • Re-entering a lower for longer rate environment

    Read more
  • US-China trade war: A framework for thinking about new tariffs (Infographics)

    Read more
See all

Yield curve inversion is not a perfect indicator of imminent recession

The extremely flat yield curve means we are at end-cycle: there is limited medium-term growth or inflationary pressures, and that 2020 poses some low but nonnegligible recession risk.

Yield curve inversion is not a perfect indicator of imminent recession

The extremely flat yield curve means we are at end-cycle: there is limited medium-term growth or inflationary pressures, and that 2020 poses some low but nonnegligible recession risk.

Re-accelerating US Economic Data

US economic data will stage a firm reacceleration in Q2 and Q3, driven by a stronger US consumer, better housing activity, and improved corporate confidence and spending.

Cautiously Optimistic to Emerging Markets

We have a general preference for EM debt over EM equities. Longer term, the quality of EM debt has been improving on a structural basis, and we view the asset class as a higher-quality credit compared with US high yield and loans.

Cautiously Optimistic to Emerging Markets

We have a general preference for EM debt over EM equities. Longer term, the quality of EM debt has been improving on a structural basis, and we view the asset class as a higher-quality credit compared with US high yield and loans.

  • Facing the headwinds with a brighter outlook (Infographics)

    Read more
  • Re-entering a lower for longer rate environment

    Read more
  • US-China trade war: A framework for thinking about new tariffs (Infographics)

    Read more
See all
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