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18 March 2019

Frances Donald, Head of Macroeconomic Strategy, Manulife Asset Management

 

From our perspective, this should be a year of volatility. We expect uncertainty at the beginning of 2019 to give way to increased confidence as we approach the middle of the year. However, we expect the optimism that could potentially build up over the second quarter will at some point be replaced by concerns of a likely US slowdown in 2020, which could lead to a re-rating of asset classes in autumn. Once again, flexibility and the ability to react quickly remain the order of the day.

 

  • Facing the headwinds with a brighter outlook (Infographics)

    Read more
  • Re-entering a lower for longer rate environment

    Read more
  • US-China trade war: A framework for thinking about new tariffs (Infographics)

    Read more
See all

Following the US Federal Reserve's dovish stance in January, other major Central Banks followed suit and veered Dovish. The global central banks have had a pronounced impact across asset classes.

Modest upside in Europe and a sizeable rebound in US economic growth in the spring should stem global recession fears for the next several months.

Modest upside in Europe and a sizeable rebound in US economic growth in the spring should stem global recession fears for the next several months.

Our probability of a US rate hike in 2019 is revised down to only 30%, given a global dovish move from major developed market central banks and the Fed intends not to allow greater than 2% inflation.

  • Facing the headwinds with a brighter outlook (Infographics)

    Read more
  • Re-entering a lower for longer rate environment

    Read more
  • US-China trade war: A framework for thinking about new tariffs (Infographics)

    Read more
See all
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